Warmest January continues global temperature puzzle
Copernicus Data for January.
The new year continues to pose the biggest question in current climate science: Why is the Earth so hot?
The default answer often given to journalists – that the globe is gradually warming due to the emission of greenhouse gases – is not an adequate explanation for the recent spike in global temperatures, for which there is much debate and no explanation.
Data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service show that January continues the puzzling run of unexplained high temperatures, with last month the warmest January on record, surface temperatures reaching 1.75°C above preindustrial levels. Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist at Copernicus, told Agence France-Presse it was ‘a bit of a surprise’. Samantha Burgess, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is quoted in the media as saying: ‘January 2025 is another surprising month, continuing the record temperatures observed throughout the last two years.’
Sea-surface temperatures were exceptionally warm in 2023 and 2024, and Copernicus said readings in January were the second highest on record. ‘That is the thing that is a little puzzling – why they remain so warm’, Nicolas said.
There is, however, some indication that temperatures may fall soon. Dr Roy Spencer’s global average lower tropospheric temperature for January, was +0.46°C, which is down substantially from December’s value of +0.62°C. Most of this cooling was over the global oceans.
Panic, now!
As is often the case, some scientists see catastrophe in uncertainty. A new study by former top NASA scientist James Hansen argues that global warming is accelerating. It’s not a view that is universally accepted however.
Another scientist told Sky News that it might be the start of a dangerous climate breakdown. Dr Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London, warned that the rising pace of climate change would increase the risk of extreme weather and its consequences. ‘The Los Angeles wildfires were a stark reminder that we have already reached an incredibly dangerous level of warming. We’ll see many more unprecedented extreme weather events in 2025.’
We might do, but then again we might not, and global warming is not necessarily a contributing factor to the recent LA fires.
Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London is, unsurprisingly, shocked, again:
The fact that the latest robust Copernicus data reveals the January just gone was the hottest on record – despite an emerging La Nina, which typically has a cooling effect – is both astonishing and, frankly terrifying…I don't think there can be any doubt that dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown has arrived.’
More sober climate scientists know there is a problem here. Climate models can’t explain what’s going on. Clearly the Earth is giving us new data, and whether it’s good or bad, we just don’t know.